Mathew Kiang (.com)Yes, with one "t".

· 1 min read

Comparing epidemics

In all likelihood, the US will end up with more (direct) deaths from COVID-19 than the “opioid epidemic” since 1999.

Using the CDC WONDER data for opioid deaths and the NYTimes data for COVID-19, I show the cumulative deaths (y-axis) from all opioids (blue) and from COVID (red) over time (x-axis).

A chart titled 'Will there be more COVID-19 deaths than all opioid deaths since 1999?' with the subtitle '(Probably.)'. Cumulative deaths from 0 to just over 500 thousand on the y-axis, against year from 1999 to 2021. The blue Opioids line climbs steadily and with increasing slope across 22 years, from zero in 1999 to about 510,000 by 2020. The red COVID-19 line starts at zero in early 2020 and is almost vertical, reaching about 520,000 within a single year — crossing the opioid total at the far right. Sources are NCHS for opioid deaths and the NYTimes for COVID-19 deaths.

I’ll be updating this periodically. Last updated: 3/5/2021.